Greece and not only, as not thought these days: Does the shooting down of Russian aircraft is the fact that opens the gates of Hell, "which introduces us into a war that is different scale?
So he can start a large-scale war, that a war with a regional or even international dimension? This query is equivalent to another: how initiates a "big" war nowadays? And we say nowadays, because after the Second World War, the most lethal and destructive in history, coming after the Cold War (which, however, never turned into "warm"), the wars we met were local, with less or greater regional importance. Initially the two superpowers USA and USSR were found for many years been entangled in war games in the four corners of the planet, of course supporting each opposing parties - a war by proxy.
Then the past two decades, we had the "campaigns" Its total of the West against the so-called "Member troublemakers" - Afghanistan, Iraq and most recently Libya. After the outbreak -and the itta- the "Arab Spring", the US withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, creating weathering conditions states in the region (Iraq and Syria) and fill this gap by ISIS, came back the "war by proxy", where Western powers "played" with the warring sides.
Until this point we have a war with to0piko chaotic elements. However, two major developments before the Russo-Turkish against the huge wave of Syrian and Afghan refugees to the West and the direct military involvement of Russia, began to give the case a regional and international dimension. Most recently, the terrorist attack in Paris and the shooting down of the Russian aircraft from Turkey dramatically enhanced the feeling on regionalization and internationalization of the dynamics of the conflict.
With the "forums" that have gotten things, "normalization in the chaos" can not exist. Russia and Turkey have turned to the good part of the problem, having equally compelling reasons not to want to lose in this "battle". The Turkish elite believes that "the change of playing" to avoid the amputation of the country for a Kurdish state and the complete collapse of the status of regional power. Putin's Russia, with the collapse of oil prices and the Western sanctions terribly depressing the economy and its Western competitors lie, politically and militarily on its borders, with the front in Ukraine is always "warm" He knows that plays with time and with the ... head. Since both Russia and Turkey have been involved for good in the Syrian crisis, they are well aware that "whoever loses lost" ... There we have a lot of room for "flexibility" and "wisdom" ...
On the other hand, the West is behaving as if Assad wants overthrow and then "clean" with ISIS ... But the refugee stream and the terrorist attack in Paris poses severe challenges to this line. Avoiding directly involved and having so far chosen to make politics "by proxy", now is facing a new dilemma: to upgrade the policy 'by proxy' playing in Russia confrontation - Turkey? Such an option would have the inevitable effect immediately turn the conflict into a regional in the broad sense and international. If he says no to this "temptation", which solution is left? A "Yalta" in M. East with the participation of Russia, but then the establishment of Kurdish state comes closer, and that's casus belli for Turkey! The tangle of contradictions is now scary, and why the West as a whole is very likely that it will not do anything at all ...
Nevertheless, Russia and Turkey are forced to "do" - each one that requires interest. They are forced to compete "floundering" in the Syrian swamp. Therefore, we have another important new element, that plus all the other (refugees and terrorist attacks in the West) increases the dynamics of regionalization - internationalization of the conflict.
We are coming back to our original question ("How starts a big war nowadays?") To give an answer.
First, the only major war corresponding to the given historical circum- stances are among the Western powers and Russia, which will "catch" or the forehead of Ukraine or from the front of Syria, after escalate regionally Russia showdown - Turkey. Overall, a great war could also break out between the Western powers and China in Southeast Asia, but this front has not yet "matured" ...
Second, wars start or conscious decision someone attacking someone - so just looking for a suitable occasion or construct it ... The assassination of Duke Ferdinand by a Serb nationalist in Sarajevo was the unforeseeable circumstances that led Austria-Hungary to declare war on Serbia ( full confidence that we will win the fast) and thus open the way for what no one had designed: the First World War! But if Russia - Turkey is hardly possible unless Turkey has the assurance that will build military from the West against Russia - which no power on the European continent is not ready to do. But there are the US, to which both Syria and Ukraine are fronts far away to affect it negatively ...
Third, there is the other way, also well known in history: when someone directly involved considers as "life or death" losing the race in which it is involved, so risking actions limit. The shooting down of Russian aircraft could be included in this category. But certainly, the next such incident between Russia and Turkey will be automatically placed in this category - the next "accident" the overall 'hot' involvement will be extremely likely.
Fourth, also common in history: the overall complexities are so great and the loss of control so universal, so sooner or later the "cunning of history" manufactures the occasion - the historical coincidence that raises on the scene of history the historically necessary ...
In our case, the conditions and "mechanisms" mentioning the third and fourth floor already installed ... You are in themselves enough to open the "gates of Hell"? Nobody knows, but no-one can give an assurance to the contrary ...
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